Imagine that you are in a state which no longer has meaningful and enforceable restrictions on social distancing. The number of cases and deaths has fallen substantially over a period of weeks, but there is no vaccine, and universal testing is a distant dream. Would you:
1. Attend an athletic event, a concert, or a theatrical performance?
2. Go to a restaurant, even if its capacity is reduced?
3. Fly anywhere?
4. Use any kind of public transportation?
5. Go back to work in an office or manufacturing plant where management does not strictly enforce its own distancing and cleaning rules?
6. Shop in any store that does not enforce distancing, even if it is no longer legally required?
I suspect most people would respond negatively to the majority, and perhaps all, of these questions. If I’m right, it simply illustrates that the critical issue in the economic recovery is consumer and worker confidence, not regulations, and that confidence will not return until it is generally accepted that you can engage in standard economic activity without running the risk of catching the virus. That, in turn, cannot be done without a rigorous regime of testing. Why that part of the equation is not receiving the attention it deserves is a mystery to me.
Realistically, the private sector is probably our best hope here. Businesses will have every incentive to build confidence among their workers and consumers. They have the ability to enforce their own testing, cleaning, and distancing rules, even if the government doesn’t. Those that do will have the best chance of survival, regardless of what Trump and the governors decide.