As Trump sees it, everything will be back to normal by June, repressed animal spirits will be set free, the economy will come roaring back, and it’s morning in America in November. Is that likely?
No. Some restrictions on movement are going to continue until we have a vaccine. The trauma of hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of lost jobs will not be forgotten quickly. Much of the missing production will never be replaced. The crisis will continue in large parts of the rest of the world even if the problem is largely solved here. World trade will slump; industries reliant on exports will struggle; and many small businesses won’t survive, even with government help. Some Republicans in Congress will probably make matters worse by demanding spending cuts as soon as possible. It isn’t going to be a pretty picture.
The economy will not be a winning issue for Trump in November. Expect him to run as the heroic virus buster who stood up to China, instead.