Sanders is left with one path to victory; he has to completely destroy Biden, without the help of an audience, during Sunday’s debate. If he had Warren at his side, you could imagine it, but he’s just a guy with one speech and no finesse, so it won’t happen.
Next week will be the St. Patrick’s Day Massacre, and then it will be over. The Democrats can focus on unseating the man on golf cart. Not a minute too soon.
The president’s response to the virus to date has been quintessentially Trumpian: ignoring experts; sending mixed messages; boasting about his own performance; engaging in a salesman’s happy talk; and blaming Obama and the press for all of the problems. As an NYT columnist said, however, you can’t gaslight a virus. The stock market, Trump’s favorite gauge of public approval, has tumbled. What now?
With a few more days like yesterday, he will be screaming for stimulus. The GOP Senate, which believes in austerity for Democrats and stimulus for Republicans, will undoubtedly go along. So what would an appropriate stimulus package look like, and how should the Democrats respond?
It isn’t easy to devise a package when conditions are still evolving. What is clear is that the usual GOP toolkit of regressive tax cuts and low interest rates won’t solve a public health problem. A temporary payroll tax cut would make some sense, but it probably wouldn’t be enough to avoid layoffs in highly affected industries. Targeted bailouts would also help, but there would be no guarantee that they would reach enough businesses, or that the public funds would end up in the hands of workers, as opposed to investors.
So what should the Democrats do? I would suggest laying down principles and leaving the formulation of policy to the administration. The principles should emphasize the need for speed, narrow targeting, and support for workers, not investors. Would the GOP be willing to live with a plan that favors workers over capital? Probably not, which would be the point during an election campaign.
I think it was Lefty Gomez who said he would rather be lucky than good. It is an observation that certainly applies to Donald Trump, who is finally facing the first crisis of his administration that was not self-created. Does the virus represent the end of his streak?
It depends on how long it lasts and how severe it is. If the virus causes a recession that lasts for several months, yes. If not, no. Right now, we have no way of knowing. The only thing you can say for sure is that if the recovery is swift, it will have nothing to do with him, because, as usual, he is doing his best to confuse the public and make things worse.
The Coronavirus is now China’s most noteworthy export, because: Chinese culture includes the consumption of wildlife; the political system effectively encourages local governments to suppress bad news; and transparency is antithetical to the system at its highest levels. The entire world is paying the price as a result.
When you add the effects of the virus to the trade wars, you have to imagine that multi-national companies will be considering diversifying their supply chains. Are the Chinese willing to make the reforms that are necessary to keep them from moving their production to other countries? The Chinese government thinks it is too big and powerful to accept dictation from foreigners, so the answer is almost certainly no.
Bernie Sanders’ only executive experience came as the mayor of a small city in Vermont decades ago. If he is elected, his administration will probably be filled with young, inexperienced people, as he will view any figures from what he views as a failed, sellout Obama administration with great suspicion. Is this the kind of government you want in a crisis?
Yes, even the virus is working for Biden at this point.
Biden will need the support of the Bernie Bros in the general election if, as expected, he is the nominee. How can he campaign against Sanders without offending them?
One way is to use Bernie’s own words against him. The obvious choice is “revolution.” That doesn’t sound too appealing to the elderly and swing voters, but it is the essence of the Sanders campaign. Bernie can hardly disown it at this point. Just say in a matter-of-fact way that you are in favor of incremental reforms, while your opponent wants a “revolution,” and the moderate case practically makes itself.
Since we’re replaying the 2016 election, with Biden standing in for Clinton, how do the two stack up? Here’s my analysis:
In short, Biden, on the whole, is better positioned than Clinton was if, as seems likely, he wins the nomination.
2016 winner: Clinton
Overview: Florida is a demographic nightmare for Sanders: lots of old people; few young people; Hispanics who are more concerned about Maduro and Cuba than the wall. Expect a lot of talk about Social Security in his commercials; the revolution, not so much.
The prediction: A blowout win for Biden. Sanders will never recover.
December 8, 1941
President Trump denied widespread reports of a Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor this morning. Later in the day, when confronted with video evidence of the attack, he admitted that it had occurred, but called articles referring to large numbers of casualties and massive damage “fake news” generated by Democrats to make him look bad. He went on to say that he had a “hunch” that the Pacific Fleet would be operating at full strength in no time, and he advised the public to buy stocks to show their faith in him and America. A tax cut is also under consideration to rebuild consumer confidence.
To Warren and her supporters, the answer is clear. She ran the best campaign, had the most and best plans, and was the most effective debater. She deserved to win. That she didn’t was clearly the result of sexism. What else could it be?
The truth is more complicated than that. Warren fell short for three reasons:
And so ends my Warren’s day blog feature. Regular programming will resume on Wednesdays.
2016 winner: Sanders
Overview: Biden has the momentum, and he could close the deal by winning in this Sanders-friendly state. Bernie’s protectionism resonates here, however, and his money is funding an effective air campaign. There are no debates prior to the election. Biden will hit Bernie on his equivocal position on the auto bailout, but will that be enough?
The prediction: Sanders ekes out a slim victory and stays alive for another week.
A switch in time saved Biden. That’s the real story of Super Tuesday.
Yes, Biden performed better at the last debate, and campaigned effectively in SC. He doesn’t win a decisive victory on Super Tuesday, however, if Mayor Pete and Klobuchar wait until Wednesday to drop out, as you would normally expect them to do. Biden owes them an immense debt of gratitude for their unselfishness.
Additional credit should go to Elizabeth Warren, for eviscerating Bloomberg, and to Jim Clyburn, who saved Biden’s bacon in SC.
Now we are looking at a replay of 2016, as I predicted in January. I will be discussing it from every imaginable angle over the next week or so.
A wise businessman never throws good money after bad. The realo consolidation is at last complete. It’s high time.
2016, here we come!
It has become thunderingly obvious that Warren has no path to the nomination. There will be no brokered convention and no successful unity candidate. So what now?
She could drop out and throw her support to Sanders, of course. The other possibility would be to maintain just enough of a campaign to qualify for the remaining debates and to use her speaking time to annihilate Biden. Bernie doesn’t have the skill to do that, but she does.
Would she try it? It would mean burning her bridges with most of the rest of the party. The safe bet would be no. The possibility cannot be entirely dismissed, however.
I can’t resist pointing out that my prediction from about six weeks ago was dead on target. We are exactly where I thought we would be after Super Tuesday.
The most likely outcome now is a rerun of 2016. If the race boils down to just Sanders and Biden, the latter should win, because: Sanders has shown over and over again that his theory of mobilizing huge numbers of disaffected left-leaning voters simply doesn’t work in practice; and progressives only represent about 40 percent of Democratic primary voters. If you don’t believe me on the electorate, just do the math; progressives only won a majority in Nevada.
Could anything upset Biden’s road to the nomination? That depends on Warren and Bloomberg. More on that later.