Historically, no single faction has represented a majority of the GOP, so contenders for the nomination have been compelled to create coalitions. How will this work in 2024? Here are the likely contenders:
- Romney Coalition (PBPs and CDs): Marco Rubio.
- Goldwater Coalition (Reactionaries and CLs): Ted Cruz; Rick Scott.
- Reagan Coalition (Reactionaries and PBPs): Tom Cotton; Josh Hawley.
- “National Conservatives” (Pure Reactionaries): Cotton; Hawley.
As you can see here, the real question is whether either Cotton or Hawley would have the nerve to reject PBP-friendly tax cuts and deregulation (and the campaign contributions from business that follow them) in favor of an economic plan that favors workers. I have my doubts, but we’ll see.