The virus obviously spreads most easily in urban areas. That means its impact will be felt most strongly in blue states.
How will people in the red states react? Relatively safe in their rural environments, and prompted by Trump and a few of his Fox News apostles, some of them will continue to treat the virus as a hoax generated by Trump’s enemies to defeat him in November. Some will come to realize that anything affecting their customers, both here and abroad, will also negatively affect them, and will respond accordingly. Finally, we are bound to hear stories about fundamentalist preachers who claim that this is God’s punishment for opposing Trump and legalizing gay marriage. Bet on it.