The outcome of the 2020 election will probably depend on three groups of voters:
- MILLENNIALS: Will they show up in unprecedented numbers to support the Democrats?
- MODERATE/CONSERVATIVE SUBURBANITES: They despise Trump, but worry about the financial consequences of voting for a Democrat.
- WHITE WORKING MEN: Can the Democrats flip them with economic promises, or are they primarily reactionary values voters who cannot be reached at this point?
So where does Sanders stand with these groups? While a disproportionate percentage of his supporters are young, there is absolutely no evidence, either from 2016 or the 2020 primaries to date, which suggests that he can drive up the millennial turnout enough to win the election. If he is the nominee, he’s going to lose the second group, which carried the Democrats to victory in 2018; in fact, he has shown no interest in winning them over. That just leaves the third group.
For Sanders to win a general election, we all have to pray that proposed wage increases and pro-union legislation are an adequate enticement for white working men; there are no other realistic options for him. Color me skeptical in the absence of a recession or other disaster.