1. We’ve reached a kind of equilibrium with seven people on stage. No one was remarkably good or inept. Don’t expect to see any great movement as the result of a debate until the field has been culled, and the dynamics change. That should happen after NH; the only serious contenders remaining will be the top four, with Bloomberg waiting in the wings and speaking solely through his commercials.
2. Biden needed a strong performance to avoid an implosion. While some have questioned his attempt to downplay expectations by predicting a loss in NH, he generally performed pretty well. For realo voters, that’s a mixed bag; he needs to either win or get out of Mayor Pete’s way, because Sanders is the alternative. NH won’t give us the answer to that question, but Nevada might, and SC definitely will.
3. Biden at least has a firewall. Warren doesn’t. If she doesn’t win in NH, and there is no reason to believe she will, she’s effectively finished. If she continues, and my guess is she will, her role in the process will be to divide the fundi vote and help the realos defeat Sanders.
4. The longer the realo vote remains split, the better things look for Trump. It could be, in a sadly ironic way, the 2016 campaign all over again, with Sanders, like Trump before him, winning due to the lack of effective opposition in his extremist lane.
5. Mayor Pete is the only plausible unity candidate left in the field, given Warren’s unwillingness to separate herself from Sanders. That may well be the best reason to vote for him.