All of us were lucky: Trump; America; and even the Iranians. Had the Iranian missile strike killed any Americans, Trump probably would have upped the ante, and we would be at war today. It didn’t, so he could plausibly claim victory, and the crisis has apparently fizzled out.
But the issue remains. Is escalation still possible?
On the one hand, Trump clearly prefers economic sanctions to war, and his base doesn’t really relish the thought of another Middle East war, which matters to him. On the other hand, the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian proxy forces are hardly under the perfect control of the Iranian government, and all of Trump’s instincts tell him to respond disproportionately if there is a provocation, which is the way to war. It’s a mixed bag.
What’s new and interesting here is that Israel and Saudi Arabia don’t appear to be pushing for war. I suspect that is because the Saudis now appreciate how vulnerable their oil facilities really are, and neither party fully trusts Trump to take the war all the way to its logical conclusion after the many stops and starts to date.
It has become increasingly obvious that the red line is American deaths. If there are no deaths, there will probably be no escalation–at least not until after the election. If there are, Trump’s instincts will kick in, and heaven help us all.