Ezra Klein argues in an NYT column that the system is stacked against the Democrats, and that the problem will get worse over time. Is he right?
Yes and no, for the following reasons:
1. THE GOP ISN’T AS UNITED AS HE THINKS: I’ve gone to a lot of trouble over the last 4+ years to prove that the GOP is a coalition of four different ideological factions which don’t actually agree on very much. If you want proof, just consider this: their only significant legislative accomplishment during the two years they controlled both houses of Congress was the tax cut. The divisions are likely to become more visible as there is more discussion about “national conservatism,” which includes a repudiation of the regressive tax cuts so loved by PBPs.
2. WE’VE REACHED THE HIGH WATER MARK OF GOP GERRYMANDERING: Notwithstanding the Supreme Court decision, the public’s tolerance of gerrymandering is running thin. State constitutions are being used to put an end to the problem, and the Democrats are taking state legislative races more seriously.
3. THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROBLEM WILL IMPROVE AFTER 2020 AS A RESULT OF THE CENSUS: No elaboration is necessary.
4. BUT THE SENATE REALLY IS A PROBLEM FOR THE LEFT: There are no good solutions for the Democrats in the Senate even if the filibuster is eliminated. The Democrats will have to run candidates in rural states that appeal to white Christian identity and vision voters, not blue culture warriors or socialists. Bernie, AOC, and the like should take note.