In a post written shortly before the inauguration, I posed the following questions about the Trump presidency (these are paraphrases):
- Which of the three scenarios for the economy that I envisioned (“Funhouse Reagan,” “Reverse Robin Hood,” and “Trade Warrior”) would predominate?
- Would Trump’s foreign policy be completely unconventional, or just blustery standard GOP fare?
- How much damage would he do to the Constitution?
After three long years, we have definitive answers to the questions:
- The huge regressive tax cut, with no serious attempt at spending restraint, was the predicted “Funhouse Reagan.” His mildly annoying periodic attempts to cut welfare programs have not amounted to much in the big picture. “Trade Warrior” has been a drag on manufacturing and investment, but not enough to make much of a difference in employment or wages. The one mistake I made here was in concluding that the combination of “Funhouse Reagan” and “Trade Warrior” would result in higher interest rates and a recession. That nearly came to pass, but the Fed pulled back; it is now clear that our economy is hooked on low interest rates for the foreseeable future, with possibly dire results during the next recession.
- Trump’s enthusiasm, as opposed to mere tolerance, for dictators, his consistent opposition to free trade, and his bashing of traditional allies are all outside of the GOP mainstream. You would have to say that his foreign policy has been predominantly unconventional.
- On the constitutional front, Trump has been a mixed bag. In spite of his many complaints about defamation and the “enemies of the people,” he hasn’t done anything (yet) to curtail our First Amendment rights. By and large, he has also complied with court orders. On the other hand, he is destroying the public’s faith in our institutions with his complaints about the judiciary and the “deep state,” inviting foreign intervention in our elections, openly using his position to enrich himself, and defying legitimate efforts at congressional oversight on a regular basis. That is damaging the system to a degree that even I didn’t envision in January, 2017.
It’s not a very pretty record, and if he wins a second term, it is likely to be worse than the first.