(Yes, I know Iowa has caucuses, not a primary, but the series will primarily encompass, well, primaries).
OVERVIEW: There are several races within the race here. Biden doesn’t have to win, but a victory here would make his ultimate success look nearly inevitable. Sanders doesn’t need to win, either; his principal competition at this point is with Warren, with whom he will subsequently face off in New Hampshire. Given the amount of time and resources she has poured into the state, Warren needs to win, period. So do Mayor Pete and Klobuchar; given their lack of minority and progressive support, their only hope is to ride a bandwagon that starts here. The rest are also-rans.
THE PREDICTION: Warren has the best organization here. She relies on it to pull out a narrow victory, but it isn’t enough to give her much of a bounce. Biden, Mayor Pete, and Sanders are all close behind. Klobuchar is nowhere close, and ceases to be a factor in the race.