Imagine that you are the President of Iran. How would you retaliate? Here is my analysis:
- THROW THE AMERICANS OUT OF IRAQ: This would be the time to make a peaceful effort to persuade the Iraqi government to order the Americans to leave. There would be opposition from forces hostile to Iran, but it might work under the present circumstances. THE PROGNOSIS: Certain.
- CYBERATTACKS: Cyberattacks can do plenty of damage to America without running very much risk of a military response. The only question is whether the Iranians have much ability to pull it off. You can probably assume they do. THE PROGNOSIS: Virtually certain.
- MILITIA ATTACKS ON AMERICAN FORCES IN IRAQ, INCLUDING THE EMBASSY: These would probably fail miserably–you’re outgunned, and the political consequences would be negative. THE PROGNOSIS: Only if the militia groups do it on their own, which is possible.
- STRIKES ON SAUDI OIL FACILITIES: They wouldn’t be a direct attack on the Great Satan, but they would do lots of harm, and they have a good chance of success. THE PROGNOSIS: Possible.
- DIRECT OR PROXY ATTACKS ON ISRAEL: The present issue is with America, not Israel, and the Israelis are fully prepared. THE PROGNOSIS: Unlikely, as the risks outweigh the rewards.
- CLOSE THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ: You need diplomatic support, and this is a good way to lose it. Rogue actions by elements of the Revolutionary Guard are a real possibility, however. THE PROGNOSIS: If they happen, they will be unauthorized.
- TERRORIST ATTACKS ON SOFT AMERICAN TARGETS: There are so many possibilities, they are hard to analyze. THE PROGNOSIS: Unknown.