Month: December 2019

Historically, Labour was a left-leaning party grounded in the economic interests of the working class, the Conservatives were a right-leaning party dominated by the middle class, and the Liberals and Lib Dems were, well, not Labour or the Conservatives. It was easy to tell what they didn’t like, but hard to identify what they stood for in a positive sense that set them apart from the other parties.

Today, the Conservatives have become a thuggish populist party with less interest in protecting the UK’s institutions and traditional values than in power and Brexit, while Labour has a anachronistic program that makes Michael Foot look good. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, have a position on Brexit that is both firm and sensible, and they have an opportunity to become an identity-based, left-leaning alternative to Labour which actually makes sense in a country that is no longer primarily divided by class.

Barring tactical voting on an absolutely massive scale, the Conservatives are going to win the election. The real question is whether the Lib Dems can become the largest English party in the opposition. Pray that they do.

Steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil. Are you kidding me?

This makes no sense whatsoever from a geopolitical, ideological, or economic perspective. It can only be understood as a raw exercise of power for its own sake–he can, therefore, he must. And so he does, as the rest of the world watches in bewilderment and disgust and wonders what fresh hell comes next.

Welcome to the club, guys! We feel your pain!

Generally speaking, most historical bad guys have had a few reasonably decent qualities that at least slightly redeemed them. With Trump, it’s hard to see any redeeming virtues; it is his other vices–egotism, laziness, and ignorance–that have saved us from living in an authoritarian state up until now. We should be grateful for them, I suppose.

The next comparably popular reactionary is likely to be a different story. He won’t be lazy or ignorant or capricious or completely corrupt. He’ll probably have an Ivy League education and glittering business or military credentials. He’ll be grimly determined to “impose the order and orthodoxy” of the white Christian minority on the majority of the country, regardless of the cost to our liberal democratic state. He’ll be far more Franco, and less Falstaff–a man on horseback, not golf cart.

The bottom line is that we have to hope that Trump’s weaknesses and failures will completely discredit the authoritarian project in this country before it really takes root. Will that happen? I really don’t know, but we had better hope so.

Information from Iran is sketchy, but it appears that the government has put down an uprising of sorts with considerable loss of life. Is this the precursor for the end of the regime? And will it cause the Iranian government to pull back outside its borders?

The answer to the first question is almost certainly no. Revolutions only succeed when the government is divided, doubts its own legitimacy, and is consequently unable or unwilling to use massive amounts of force to protect itself. In this case, the regime honestly thinks it is ordained by God, and the Revolutionary Guards have strong ideological and economic interests that are at risk. Finally, the violence seems to be localized. It will take far more than some burned-out gas stations to genuinely endanger the regime.

The second question is murkier. All I can say is that the hardliners tend to benefit, both economically and politically, when things go bad, so my best guess is that the regime will double down instead of turning tail.

As William Barr (among others) is eager to tell you, American Christians are a beleaguered minority whose values are constantly under attack by sinister secular forces working through government, rogue elements of the judiciary, and the media. Given that premise, religious reactionaries should be strong supporters of Catholic immigrants fleeing oppression in Central America in order to help balance the scales, right?

Umm. . . no. That tells you that genuinely religious people are a small minority on the far right. But you already knew that, because they were Cruz voters in 2016, and you know how that turned out.