I don’t think Trump’s pressure will bring the Iranians to the table, given the government’s political constraints, but assume that I’m wrong, and negotiations ensue. What could Trump reasonably expect to get in a second deal that wasn’t attainable in the first one?
Here are the possibilities, and my reactions:
1. AN EXTENDED TIMEFRAME ON THE AGREEMENT: The other parties to the agreement would have no philosophical objection to this, as it would not change the framework of the deal. The Iranians might agree to it if they received some face-saving concessions. THE VERDICT: Quite possible.
2. LIMITATIONS ON IRANIAN BALLISTIC MISSILES: This one would be harder to enforce than limitations of nuclear activity. THE VERDICT: Questionable, but not beyond the realm of possibility.
3. TOUGHER INSPECTION PROTOCOLS: The current ones are pretty strict. Don’t hold your breath. THE VERDICT: Very doubtful.
4. LIMITS ON IRANIAN SUPPORT FOR FOREIGN PROXIES: Completely unenforceable and an unrealistic violation of Iranian sovereignty. THE VERDICT: Forget it.