As anticipated, there are only two stated grounds for impeachment: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Good! To the extent there are any political benefits from the process, we’ve already seen them; there is no point in gilding the lily. Furthermore, it would be a mistake to run the primaries and impeachment concurrently; it’s not fair to the candidates or the voters. Let’s force the issue, put the GOP on the record supporting corruption, and move on to the campaign.
So how will the trial be run? As far as I can see, there are four models:
1. Rely solely on the written record;
2. Use a mix of the written record and a few carefully selected live witnesses;
3. Let it rip. Subpoena the Bidens, Hillary Clinton, and anyone else you can find, and make the case for Ukrainian corruption and Trump’s complete innocence; or
4. Call Rudy, Pompeo, and the rest of the gang and see where it goes.
I strongly suspect the choice will be #2. McConnell wants to put on enough of a show to convince the American public that the GOP is taking the allegations seriously, which rules out #1. Trump may talk a good game on #4, but his lawyers will ultimately persuade him that it would be a dreadful mistake. Finally, there won’t be a majority of the Senate to support #3. #2 wins by default.