A New Iranian Revolution?

Information from Iran is sketchy, but it appears that the government has put down an uprising of sorts with considerable loss of life. Is this the precursor for the end of the regime? And will it cause the Iranian government to pull back outside its borders?

The answer to the first question is almost certainly no. Revolutions only succeed when the government is divided, doubts its own legitimacy, and is consequently unable or unwilling to use massive amounts of force to protect itself. In this case, the regime honestly thinks it is ordained by God, and the Revolutionary Guards have strong ideological and economic interests that are at risk. Finally, the violence seems to be localized. It will take far more than some burned-out gas stations to genuinely endanger the regime.

The second question is murkier. All I can say is that the hardliners tend to benefit, both economically and politically, when things go bad, so my best guess is that the regime will double down instead of turning tail.