It doesn’t get the attention it should, but the real story behind the campaign thus far is the failure of Harris and Booker to convince African-Americans that they have a legitimate chance to win. As a result, there are no serious contenders running as minority identity candidates, and the remaining fissure between the plausible nominees is the ideological split between realos and fundis. That, in turn, is largely a reflection of the generation gap within the Democratic Party. Biden has little or no support among people under 45; the progressives have no support among older voters who do not pine for the “revolution.”
So who wins? It looks like the outcome will be dictated by two unknowns. First, there is the question of how many candidates will remain and divide up the votes within the realo and fundi lanes throughout the primaries (Mayor Pete is a particularly important wild card for realos here); and second, can Warren and Sanders actually get their millennial supporters to the polls? I make no predictions on either as of today.