Joe Biden’s theory for winning the general election is simple and obvious. Trump will mobilize both bases; the key is to win undecided votes in swing states. The best way to do this is through working class identity politics and with a package of moderate reforms designed to provide immediate help to working and middle class families. It’s an approach that can and has worked, most recently in 2018.
Elizabeth Warren’s theory is completely different. She has no apparent interest in moving to the center to win the votes of moderates. She thinks she can prevail by mobilizing millions of non-voters through a series of ambitious spending plans, paid for primarily by wealthy people, that will provide them with clear economic benefits. This approach assumes that: (a) the non-voters can, in fact, be mobilized; (b) they are primarily motivated by economic concerns, and not right-wing cultural values; and (c) they live in swing states, as running up the score with millions of additional millennial votes in New York and California will do nothing to win in the Electoral College.
Warren’s concept is not illogical, but it is facially implausible and unproven. She has the burden of demonstrating that it can work. Thus far, she hasn’t done nearly enough to make her case.