Month: October 2019

Like his friend and mentor, John McCain, Lindsey Graham attempted to be a strong and independent voice on the right. Like McCain, Graham was bitterly critical of Donald Trump prior to the 2016 election. But unlike McCain, Graham decided to play the insider game and suck up relentlessly to Trump in the hope that it would win him influence in matters of foreign policy. He was very open about making this bargain with the devil in an interview about a year ago.

Today, Graham is one of Trump’s most vocal defenders, even in the face of admissions that Trump used his office to demand inappropriate political and legal favors from Ukraine. You have to wonder what McCain would have thought of that. Actually, you don’t have to wonder; you already know.

And for what? Can Graham point to any actual successes in foreign affairs? Has Trump suddenly become a neocon under his tutelage? Obviously not.

At the present rate, Graham is in danger of being portrayed in history books as one of the men who helped midwife fascism in the United States. I hope he considers that when, as is likely, he has to vote on articles of impeachment in a few months.

The Chinese Empire lasted about 2,000 years, so when it comes to imperialism, this isn’t their first rodeo. How does the new empire compare to the old one?

The old one was backed by military force, and the ability to pay off barbarians was a key component, but its most important feature was the conspicuous superiority of Chinese civilization, which ultimately converted and swallowed up barbarian invaders. Today, no one particularly admires the Chinese political system. Fear of Chinese military power matters in the South China Sea. However, the most important element, by far, is money.

The Chinese have been successful in buying plenty of support all over the world. The problem with that approach, however, is that you can’t buy everyone, and some people refuse to stay bought. What do you do then?

History tells us that when the investments of imperialist nations are threatened by political instability, they typically respond with military force. The Chinese have yet to face that situation, but it’s going to happen in the future, and don’t expect them to deviate from the pattern, their self-righteous rhetoric about non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries notwithstanding.

The last three standing are likely to be Biden, Warren, and Sanders. How will that turn out?

It depends on whether Warren succeeds in portraying herself as the sensible one in the middle, or whether she continues to compete with Sanders solely for progressive votes. If the former, she probably wins; if the latter, Biden wins, because his lane is wider, and he will have no competition. It’s that simple.

Is Warren capable of moving to the middle? Sanders is making it easier for her by drifting even further to the left. There is definitely room there if she plays her cards right, but it will require some tactical and rhetorical dexterity. It certainly hasn’t happened to date. We’ll see.

China is a colossus. It has the world’s second largest economy, and it is catching up fast. Its armed forces become more imposing every day. It has money to burn, and spends it buying influence all over the globe. Mess with it at your peril.

But China is a poor country, too. Its GDP per capita is nowhere close to, say, Taiwan’s, let alone ours. Large swaths of it belong in the Third World. It is consequently entitled to special treatment from international organizations, such as the WTO.

The rich land, poor land tightrope was always difficult to navigate, and is particularly so today, since Xi is more fond of bluster than his predecessors. The end of this is in sight; the rest of the world isn’t going to cut the poor victims of imperialism any slack anymore. And it shouldn’t; today’s China is once again an imperial power in its own right.

Ukraine was always the big black cloud hanging over Joe Biden’s head. It was inevitable that someone was going to use his son’s business activities as evidence that he is a swamp creature who wouldn’t provide enough ethical contrast with Trump to be a suitable Democratic nominee in 2020. The only real questions were who and when.

As it happened, his son is a minor player in a drama that features an abuse of power by Trump. That’s a big break for Biden, and an opportunity. None of the other Democratic candidates are going to touch the issue with a ten foot pole now, and he could end up as a more, not less, sympathetic figure when it is all said and done. It all depends on how he handles it.

My best guess at this point is that Ukraine will move the needle slightly in Warren’s favor, but not much. We’ll see.