Yesterday’s issue of The Times featured a cartoon of Jeremy Corbyn pointing a starter’s pistol at his own head and saying “On your Marx! Set! Go!” That pretty well says it all for me.
The election will actually incorporate referenda on three separate issues:
- The merits of the Brexit deal;
- The conduct of the government in the process of negotiating the deal; and
- Corbyn’s extreme left-wing platform.
It is perfectly possible–in fact, very likely–that Remain could win on the first two issues, but lose the election for the third reason. The Remain vote is certain to be split between the Lib Dems and Labour, while the vast majority of Leavers are going to vote for Boris, not the Brexit Party. Expect a smashing Conservative victory that represents the state of public opinion on Corbyn, not Brexit.
Then what? There will be big constitutional problems with Scotland and Northern Ireland. The transition period with trade and the EU will only last a year, and there is no guarantee that any agreement the parties can reach will be beneficial to either side. 2020 will consequently be a year that calls for great finesse on the part of the new government. Unfortunately, Boris is more into showy populism, flip-flops, and bluster than finesse.