In the end, there are only two options for the American military presence in Afghanistan: the Korean model, in which we stay indefinitely to maintain a stalemate; and the Vietnam model, in which we make an ostensibly face-saving deal with the enemies knowing perfectly well that it ultimately result in the destruction of our allies.
Trump’s preference for the Vietnam model was clear even before he sold out the Kurds in Syria. Can there be any doubt about his intentions now? They don’t even have oil in Afghanistan. I’m afraid opium doesn’t count.
If I’m a member of the Afghan government, I’m working on my exit strategy today. Waiting would be a serious mistake. From Trump’s perspective, on the other hand, the most important concern is to make sure that the Taliban’s parade in Kabul takes place after the 2020 election. Nothing else will matter to him.