There is an ongoing dispute within the Democratic Party as to whether the best way to win in 2020 is by converting swing voters or by mobilizing the base. My position, of course, is that history supports the swing voter approach. The question for today is, what exactly does “base mobilization” mean, in practice?
The term itself is somewhat misleading; the actual “base” consists of ideologically-driven activists who typically vote regardless of the identity of the candidate, and who can be relied upon to vote against Trump under any circumstances. The real unknown is not whether that group will vote, but whether it can be expanded to include people who are potentially sympathetic to the cause, but too apathetic to vote under normal conditions. The question which follows is, who are those people?
Bernie Sanders almost certainly thinks they are poor workers who can be motivated to vote by a program which appeals strongly to their economic self-interest. Elizabeth Warren, on the other hand, undoubtedly believes that her pool of new voters comes from millennials; her program consequently offers them quite a lot. On balance, I think she has the better argument; the poor white workers are frequently moved more by conservative values than by money, and they are more likely to vote for Trump than any Democrat, whereas the millennials have strong economic grievances and far less attachment to traditional social values.