There has always been plenty of protectionism in the EU’s DNA, but it has been kept in check in recent years. There were several reasons for that, including the EU’s enthusiasm for a rules-based system, benefits to European consumers, the importance of exports to the German economy, and the influence of free traders in the US and the UK.
But that was then, and this is now. The US has joined China as an openly mercantilist nation. The UK is leaving. The German economy is slipping into recession, largely as a result of Trump’s trade war. The WTO is starting to break down under the constant assaults from Trump. Most importantly, embracing protectionism would be a great way for the establishment to deal with right-wing populism. It will hurt European consumers, and some producers, but under these fairly dire circumstances, that is a price the establishment will find acceptable.
And so, it will happen, and when Trump screams about it, they can just say, “Europe First!”