Assume, as I do, that Boris wins the election and rams through no-deal. What challenges will he face in making Britain great again?
Four, in particular:
- LEGAL COMPLICATIONS WITH THE EU IN THE TRANSITION: It’s possible that all of the talk about shortages and such will turn out to be another Y2K situation, and that everyone will muddle through just fine. We don’t know. There will be issues on a million fronts, however, and some of them are likely to be serious.
- THE AMAZING SHRINKING POUND: The pound is going to fall after no-deal. A conventional Tory politician would cut spending and accept a degree of temporary austerity in order to protect the pound and the savings of his constituents. I don’t think Boris will do that, at least not consistently; I suspect he will continue to cut taxes and spend massively and hope that the collapsing pound will ultimately increase exports and tourism. It’s a cycle familiar to countries run by strongmen, and it’s going to be painful for consumers and savers, particularly the elderly.
- NORTHERN IRELAND: As I’ve noted before, I anticipate that Boris will pretend to create a harder border, but actually do nothing.
- SCOTLAND: The Tories are going to be wiped out in Scotland in the upcoming election. Support for independence will run high. Boris will refuse to consider a second referendum. Don’t be surprised if we see some violence, and even a general strike.