It’s January, 2020, and the recession is in full swing. Trump predictably is blaming everyone around him and screaming for stimulus. The Fed is trying, but has little ammunition with which to work, so it’s really up to Congress. What happens there?
The GOP, true to form, demands tax cuts. House Democrats aren’t even slightly interested in that approach, because: (a) tax cuts are an extremely inefficient form of stimulus, as most of the money is saved, not spent; (b) we’ve already been down that street; and (c) no one wants to bail out a flailing president. In order to keep faith with the American people, however, the House passes a series of large spending increases, similar to the spending elements of the Obama stimulus. The bill then goes to the Senate.
Mitch McConnell and his allies have a terrible dilemma. Everyone remembers how they demonized stimulus during the Obama years, and at least a little bit of the opposition was genuine and ideological, as opposed to cynical and opportunistic. If he supports the bill, he violates one of the GOP’s few principles. If he doesn’t, the GOP and Trump are going down in November. Which does he choose?
This could easily happen, and my guess is that McConnell’s desire for power is much stronger than any concerns about deficit spending.