“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!” That famous line from “Godfather III” pretty well summarizes Vladimir Putin’s upcoming dilemma, which is highly appropriate, given the nature of the Russian regime.
If Xi were to die tomorrow, the Chinese Communist Party would have no trouble replacing him. Putin, on the other hand, is the indispensable component of his kleptocratic government; he is the one who hands out the goodies and balances the interests. Everyone beneath him does his bidding and fights for his favor. He has no real ideology (other than expanding Russian power, of course) and no obvious successor. When he goes, there will be battles for wealth and power that will range throughout the entire country, with no predictable outcome in sight. Anything could happen, including a new push for genuine democracy. How can he avoid that?
I doubt he can, but my guess is that he will use Deng as his model, and maintain ultimate control of the government even after he formally relinquishes power to his handpicked successor by retaining some sort of minor office and keeping in touch when crises occur, as they inevitably will. There is no guarantee that will work, however; successful strongmen are a tough act to follow. Just ask Maduro.