In spite of their obvious conceptual and rhetorical differences, there are points of continuity between the two on foreign policy, as follows:
- NORTH KOREA: Obama built a coalition, but it didn’t change Kim’s behavior. Trump first threatened nuclear war, then decided to rely on personal charm. That hasn’t worked either. ADVANTAGE: EVEN.
- IS: The Trump secret plan turned out to be the Obama plan. It succeeded. ADVANTAGE: EVEN.
- AFGHANISTAN: Both men battled the blob to withdraw. Neither has succeeded to date. ADVANTAGE: EVEN.
- SYRIA: Neither man wanted to make much of a commitment to help the rebels. Now the question is, who wins the peace? ADVANTAGE: EVEN.
- RUSSIA: Russian adventurism in Ukraine took place during Obama’s watch, not Trump’s. On the other hand, Trump is doing nothing we know of to deal with ongoing Russian cyberwarfare efforts, and he usually appears to be at odds with his own government. ADVANTAGE: EVEN.
- IRAN/SAUDI ARABIA: Obama built a coalition against Iran, negotiated the nuclear deal, and refused to underwrite Saudi ambitions. Trump scrapped the deal, isolated America diplomatically, and gave MBS a blank check. ADVANTAGE: OBAMA.
- CHINA: The “pivot to Asia” was based on the TPP. It could have worked. Trump has relied upon bluster and tariffs, which won’t. ADVANTAGE: OBAMA.
- RELATIONS WITH ALLIES: It isn’t clear that NATO can survive another four years of Trump. ADVANTAGE: OBAMA.
- LATIN AMERICA: Obama re-established diplomatic relations with Cuba. Trump tried unsuccessfully to overthrow the Venezuelan regime. ADVANTAGE: OBAMA.
- INDIA: Both presidents moved slightly towards India. Trump probably doesn’t even know where Kashmir is. ADVANTAGE: OBAMA.
There you have it! Not as lopsided as with domestic policy, but Obama is a clear winner here, too