There are three conceptually different models for a successful Democratic candidacy in 2020:
- The “revolution”–persuading reactionary white workers to vote for their economic interests over their cultural preferences;
- The united front–moving to the center and picking off moderates disillusioned by Trump, including Never Trumpers, suburban women, principled conservatives, and some business interests; and
- Base mobilization–convincing reluctant minority and millennial voters to go to the polls with promises of shiny new government programs and extreme statements on cultural issues.
At this point, no one, including Sanders, is really trying #1, which would probably require the Democratic Party to make concessions to the right on cultural issues. #2 is consistent with the outcome of the midterms and has plenty of history behind it. Many leftist pundits, however, are pushing for #3, which is, of course, the Trumpian model.
Assume, for purposes of argument, that #3 can generate millions of new blue votes, even though there is very little historical support for that premise. Assume further that exacerbating existing national divisions by engaging in Trumpian tactics doesn’t present any future issues in governing the country. My question is, if you succeed in mobilizing the base, where are the additional blue votes going to be cast? Winning California by another million votes accomplishes precisely nothing in the big picture.
If the Democrats want to win and get something done, they are going to have to flip purple, and possibly even red, states. Moving to the left on both cultural and economic issues isn’t going to accomplish that.