Joe Biden is essentially running for Obama’s third term. Assume that he gets it, and that the Democrats win a narrow majority in the Senate. What happens in the following four years?
Here is my best guess:
- TONE OF POLITICS: Things improve to the point that there are no shutdowns or debt ceiling crises. McConnell goes into full obstruction mode on legislation, however, and the filibuster remains in place, so nothing much happens that can’t be approved through reconciliation.
- TAXING AND SPENDING: The Democrats pass a tax increase that rolls back large parts of the Trump tax cut. They use the proceeds to fund an increase in the EITC, higher Obamacare subsidies, and additional money for green infrastructure.
- CLIMATE CHANGE: The proposed carbon tax dies in the Senate. Biden returns us to the Paris Agreement and reinstates the Obama regulations.
- CHINA: Biden ends the Trump trade war, but launches a new effort, with the assistance of the EU, to force changes in Chinese mercantilist behavior.
- RUSSIA: Back to the Obama status quo.
- RELATIONS WITH TRADITIONAL ALLIES: Back to the Obama status quo.
- MIDDLE EAST: Biden offers to return to the Iran nuclear agreement and end sanctions in exchange for some additional safeguards. The EU joins in, and the Iranians accept the slightly revised deal.
- IMMIGRATION: Reactionaries prevent McConnell from making a moderate deal on comprehensive reform, which remains elusive.
The big change, of course, is that the constant drama, the corruption, the racism, the mixed messages, the incompetence, the attempts to subvert the rule of law, and the authoritarianism of the Trump days is gone. That is what Biden supporters really want.