The arguments against impeaching Trump are: (a) that impeachment cannot succeed; (b) it will damage the Democrats’ chances of winning in 2020; (c) it will unnecessarily divide the nation; and (d) it will normalize impeachment as a political weapon, even against presidents with an impeccable record. The arguments for are: (a) it is a good way to raise public awareness and to generate evidence; (b) Mueller has provided plenty of reasons to pursue an obstruction of justice claim, which has in the past been the basis for articles of impeachment; and (c) failing to impeach under the current circumstances will lower the bar for future presidential conduct.
All of these positions have at least some merit. Which is the stronger side? Here is my line of reasoning:
- The applicable legal standard here is “high crimes and misdemeanors,” which has been understood to mean, not indictable crimes, but actions that endangered the integrity or the security of the state. In that sense, whether Mueller believed Trump’s behavior met the statutory standard for obstruction of justice is irrelevant; the real question is whether Trump’s behavior was a danger to the state.
- Given that it was determined that there was no underlying conspiracy, and that Mueller was permitted to finish his work, I find it difficult to conclude that Trump’s actions, however deplorable, were “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
- As a result, I do not think that the current record justifies a quixotic effort to impeach.
- That isn’t the end of the story. There is plenty of reason to investigate the man on multiple fronts. His determination to stonewall legitimate efforts to hold him accountable could amount to a precedent that would effectively change the Constitution in a manner that would eliminate critical checks and balances. That could amount to a “high crime and misdemeanor.”
- And so, my judgment is that if Trump ultimately defies a court order requiring him or his administration to provide documents that are necessary for an appropriate level of oversight of the executive, that could well be grounds for impeachment, regardless of the short-term political consequences, because he would be endangering the integrity of the system as we know it.