The one positive thing we have learned about Trump while in office is that he is not a warmonger. That is undoubtedly due to his peculiar belief that negotiations, not combat, are the ultimate test of manhood. Whatever. It could be a lot worse.
That notwithstanding, we are currently heading for war with Iran. The questions have always revolved around the scope and destructiveness of the war, not its inevitability. In that instance, the picture is becoming a little brighter.
It is a given that Trump doesn’t have the time and the patience for a ground campaign and an occupation, which means the alternatives are to cut the grass or annihilate. My original prediction was that we would use nuclear weapons, because cutting the grass wouldn’t result in regime change, without which the Iranian nuclear threat would never completely disappear. Trump’s record, however, indicates that, for all of his bluster, he is usually satisfied to engage in low level military activity and to spin it as a massive success. Bibi and MBS would have no objection to cutting the grass, as it guarantees continuing American involvement on their behalf in the region. And so, my prediction has changed; I think Trump will be content with limited, strategically meaningless air strikes.