Where We Are With Venezuela

I was right: time was on Maduro’s side, not ours. The Trump/Rubio effort to topple the government has failed. Maduro has yet to do much in retaliation, because he very reasonably fears that a big blast of repression will result in a provocation and an American military response. The repression will probably take place slowly, and invisibly, but it will happen.

And so, the question is, what’s next for Trump and Rubio? As I said from the beginning, the only real solution here is a military intervention–most likely, from Brazil and Colombia, with substantial support from us. The only way that happens at this point is if we have a suitable pretext AND Trump/Rubio essentially pay the Brazilians and Colombians billions of dollars to do their dirty work. That could happen, but it is more likely that Trump will simply engage in his usual efforts to spin his failure as a success, and the poor Venezuelan people will suffer as a result.