The most likely outcome is that the Roberts Court will turn Roe into an empty shell instead of overturning it. As I have explained before, the distinction is meaningful, because, as long as Roe is still alive on paper, there is no possibility of federal legislation banning abortion in blue as well as red states. The possibility certainly exists, however, that the Court will take the more extreme step and overturn Roe altogether. The question for today is, how could that be done?
There are two possible rationales, with different legal and political consequences. The most direct, in-your-face approach would be to find that there is no textual or historical basis in the Constitution for a right to privacy. That approach would be welcomed by the far right, but it would also throw the continuing validity of the decision on birth control in the Griswold case into question, which would be a disaster for the GOP. Even women who have moral issues with abortion typically support the use of birth control, which could easily be banned in some of our redder states. The gender gap would consequently turn into a chasm.
The other, more moderate approach would be to assert (largely falsely, but the Court has plenty of recent history of cherry-picking facts) that scientific advances since the 1970’s have made the trimester-based balancing approach in Roe obsolete. That rationale would leave Griswold and birth control untouched, at least for the immediate future.
The anti-abortion forces smell blood with Kavanaugh and Gorsuch on the Court. Questions about what happens after Roe is overturned are no longer purely abstractions. We need to start thinking seriously about them, and preparing for their consequences.