On Mayor Pete

Pete Buttigieg seems to be the flavor of the month among pundits. I can’t say I know much about him, but the consensus is that he’s a bright, well-educated, sensible guy with limited relevant experience who operates in the same ideological space as Joe Biden. He also happens to be gay.

The question for the day is, why would I prefer him to Biden? If I were an employer and had to choose between the two, why would I pick the inexperienced candidate unless I couldn’t afford the experienced one?

The obvious PC answer is, because he’s gay. And that’s the problem. I wish Mayor Pete well. I’m never going to oppose him just because he’s gay. However, being gay is not a job qualification–at least not for the most important job in the world.

On America, As Viewed By Boomers and Millennials

It’s an obvious point, but it’s worth stating: your perceptions of America and its role in the world are largely dictated by your experiences. Consider the following:

Boomers grew up with the threat of annihilation by Soviet nuclear weapons. We rejoiced when the wall came down and the Soviet Union imploded. We celebrated the victory in the Gulf War. Millennials either didn’t experience any of that or were too young to remember it. They just remember 9/11, the Iraq War, and terrorism–a litany of American failures.

Boomers saw massive smog problems in LA and a burning river in Cleveland. They applaud their environmental triumphs. Those mean nothing to Millennials, who only see the dangers of climate change and blame Boomers for screwing up their planet.

Boomers drove the Civil Rights Movement and the opposition to the Vietnam War. Gay rights and feminism didn’t exist when they were born. To Millennials, you might as well be talking about the Civil War; they take these social changes for granted. PC is the next frontier.

On the economy, Millennials see stagnant wages, huge amounts of student debt, and rising inequality. Boomers would concede these points, but would also note that it is a great time to be a consumer–a point often missed by the critics of globalization and automation.

Is it any wonder that Millennials see the glass half empty, and Boomers half full? Are you surprised that Millennials call for socialism, and Boomers fear it?

To a large extent, this battle will be fought out during the Democratic primaries, with the Boomers being predominantly realos and the Millennials, fundis. At this point, there is no telling who will win.


The Race Without Biden

Imagine that Biden’s candidacy dies in a blizzard of PC arrows, leaving him looking like St. Sebastian, or a left-wing Jeb Bush. We all know it could happen; Trump’s political advisers are counting on it. What happens next? Who inherits his voters?

Their first stop would undoubtedly be Beto O’Rourke; remember, the Democrats always want to nominate someone who reminds them of JFK in some way. Beto occupies a lot of the same realo ideological space as Biden, as well. The nomination would be Beto’s for the taking at that point if he can prove to the world that he isn’t an unqualified airhead. If not, where do Biden’s voters go?

Booker is realo enough to fit the bill; so, in all likelihood, is Harris. They will be watching warily, and hoping.

On Clinton and Biden

Hillary Clinton ran as the adult in the room–the uncharismatic workhorse who could get things done–in both the 2008 and the 2016 primaries. It worked in 2016, mostly because the majority of primary voters viewed Bernie Sanders as being out of the mainstream of the Democratic Party. It failed in 2008, because there were no significant substantive differences between Clinton and Obama, and the latter was a far more attractive personality.

If Biden runs, he will be assuming the Clinton political persona in 2020. There are, however, three important differences. First, notwithstanding the recent media frenzy, he has far less baggage than Clinton. Second, he knows he’s running against Donald Trump, and can use that to his advantage. Third, and this works against him, times have changed, and left-wing millennials bent on socialism, the GND, and PC nirvana are going to be out for his blood.

Is 2008 or 2016 the more relevant precedent? I honestly don’t know; it depends on whether the average Democratic primary voter is a young activist or someone more like me. We’ll see.

On Going Negative on Bernie

The negative ads on Bernie Sanders practically write themselves, but Hillary Clinton didn’t run any in 2016, probably because she was sure she would win in the end. 2020 will be a different animal, as Bernie will start the race as a favorite. Both Biden and Warren will have plenty of incentive to go negative; Bernie is a direct threat to both of them. Will they do it?

Not immediately. Warren’s campaign will wither and die, leaving Bernie as the king of the class/fundi quadrant. If Bernie and Biden emerge as the last two standing, Biden will probably decide to take the risk of alienating the left and will start running ads starring the Castros and Daniel Ortega.

On Liz, Bernie, and the Polls

Elizabeth Warren is much smarter than Bernie Sanders. She has more than one speech. She didn’t lose in 2016. She has far less baggage. Her ideas on policy are much admired by left-leaning pundits. She’s even a few years younger. But for all that, she’s way behind him in the polls. Why?

There are three possible reasons:

  1. Bernie has better name recognition by virtue of his 2016 campaign;
  2. The voters prefer his gruff authenticity to her wonky schoolteacher persona; or
  3. Bernie is a man.

These aren’t mutually exclusive, and the correct answer is probably a combination of all three. We may collectively lament the last two, but in politics, you have to play the hand you’re dealt. Complaining about an imperfect world doesn’t do any good.

#MeToo Far

Joe Biden’s accuser is totally credible. She’s also completely irrelevant, because the conduct in question had no sexual content and would be unobjectionable to a large majority of people in this country. #WhoCares?

Complaining about innocent behavior only invites a backlash, and votes for Donald Trump. The next thing you know, anyone who ever told an ethnic joke will be disqualified from public office. That’s practically everyone in my generation.