The British government plans to hold MV3 (assuming the Speaker permits it) next week. How will it turn out? Here is my analysis:
- The government’s approach has always been to keep all options on the table in order to play one side against the other. The vote to eliminate no deal, at least temporarily, means that the PM has leverage against the Brexiteers, but not Labour. Most of the ERG will vote for the deal this time in an effort to avoid the greater evil of an indefinite delay, but some of them won’t, and Corbyn will be able to keep his troops in line. The vote will be very close, but May will lose.
- The power then switches to the EU, which can refuse an extension, make it short enough just to accommodate MV4, or grant a very lengthy extension in order to facilitate a second referendum or a different deal.
- If the extension is denied, or is very short, MV4 will follow almost immediately, and this time, the pressure will be on Labour to vote for it, as the party will be blamed for the chaos that will result from no deal. In all likelihood, Labour will crack, and the deal will pass.
- If it is a lengthy extension, half of the Conservative Party will be in open revolt, and there will be a leadership crisis of massive proportions.
In other words, assuming MV3 fails, much is riding on the decision of the EU. I do not believe they will completely reject an extension, but I make no prediction as to its length.