After the Chinese Trade War

There was a rare bipartisan consensus, and even something of an international one, that China has been a bad actor on trade issues. As a result, while his tactics were completely inept and his mercantilist premises ridiculous, you could at least give Trump credit for good intentions in launching the trade war.

The question was always whether he would push the Chinese hard enough to require real systemic changes, or back off and accept a shiny object as a “win.” It seems reasonably clear at this point that he’s going for the shiny object, just as he did with NAFTA. The question then is, what’s next for Tariff Man?

Trump has always made it clear that he considers the Europeans, and the Germans in particular, to be just as bad as the Chinese. It is not difficult to imagine him slapping tariffs on “European” (whatever that means in today’s world) cars for totally specious reasons. If he does, he will be putting another nail in the coffin of US-EU relations AND destroying any hopes of future cooperation on trade issues against China.

Like Putin before him, Xi will be thrilled.