TO: PRESIDENT PUTIN
FROM: THE NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM
RE: UKRAINE
You have been reluctant to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine up until now. There are obviously good reasons for that. It is worth noting, however, that Ukraine is unlike, say, Georgia or Afghanistan: the land is flat and ideal for tanks, not guerrilla warfare; we essentially have the country surrounded; and there are at least a few local politicians we could use to do our bidding after we leave.
Just saying. That decision is up to you. The purpose of this memo is to point out that you have a window of approximately a year in which to invade if you want to avoid the worst possible international consequences. America is politically divided, but Trump is your friend, and he is still the commander-in-chief; if you wait until 2020, you will be creating a major campaign issue that would work in favor of the Democrats. The EU is currently rudderless; Merkel is leaving, but is still there, while the UK is on its way out, period. It is likely that the vacuum will be filled in some way by next year.
The bottom line is that the best course may well be to continue to play the long game and hope Ukraine ultimately implodes. It could still happen, and the more passive approach is certainly less risky. If you feel the need to make your mark on history and bolster your popularity at home, however, this might be your best chance.