What would Congress look like with a parliamentary system? My guess is that it would have the following four parties, listed from left to right:
- THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS, consisting of the fundi faction of the Democratic Party, with about 10 percent of the seats. Led by Bernie Sanders, the SD would push for the “revolution”: a dramatically larger welfare state financed (if at all) by much higher taxes on the wealthy.
- THE LIBERALS, consisting of the realo faction of the Democratic Party, with about 35 percent of the seats. Led by Nancy Pelosi, the Liberals would support a larger, financially responsible welfare state attained through slower, more incremental change.
- THE CONSERVATIVES, consisting of the CL, PBP, and CD factions of the Republican Party, with about 25 percent of the seats. Led by Mitch McConnell, the Conservatives would be a small government party supporting tax cuts, deregulation, free trade, and traditional social values.
- THE PEOPLE’S PARTY, consisting of the Reactionary faction of the GOP, with about 30 percent of the seats. Led by Donald Trump, the PP would fight for tougher immigration laws, protectionism, and a smaller welfare state limited (to the maximum extent possible) to white Christian workers.
What you see from this is the key role of the Conservatives, who have a choice to tack right or left. Do they, as in many European countries, collaborate with the Liberals to keep out the PP, or do they make a deal with the PP in which they trade tax cuts and deregulation for racism and “America First?”
The latter, obviously, is exactly what has actually happened to the GOP since Reagan was elected. Will Trump’s excesses drive the kind of people who would vote for my hypothetical Conservative Party to support Democrats in 2020? Will the Democrats scare them away by adopting the hypothetical SD platform? Those are the bottom line questions that will be answered between now and 11/20.