Maduro and his opponents are engaged in a ferocious extraconstitutional battle for power in Venezuela. Under typical conditions, that would mean a civil war. In fact, however, there has been relatively little violence; what is going on looks more like an election campaign than a war. The pertinent questions are:
- Why?
- How long can this last?
- Time is on which party’s side in this battle?
The why question is easy to answer; the opposition knows it is completely outgunned by the government in the absence of foreign military intervention, while the government is concerned that widespread violence would only encourage such intervention. I don’t know the answer to #2. As to #3, it’s a debatable point, but I think time is on the government’s side. Trump has played all of his best cards short of an invasion; if the government doesn’t fall soon, it will be increasingly able to find ways to adjust to the new economic realities created by American economic sanctions, and the opposition is bound to become exhausted sooner or later. In the absence of a tipping point caused by defections and increasing hardship in the near future, therefore, I think the odds are on the side of the government.
If I’m right, Trump will ultimately have to choose between a humiliating defeat or military action. Let’s all hope it never comes to that.