Month: January 2019

On the Democrat candidate Warren.

Her speeches are frequently borin’.

When she’s up on the stage

Will she be all the rage?

Will the voters be sleepin’ and snorin’?

In a sense, the fate of pay-go doesn’t matter; nothing important that the Democratic House proposes is going to become law, anyway. In a broader sense, however, it does; the debate on the rules will set the tone for a fiscal and economic argument between fundis and realos that will entertain us through the campaign, and possibly thereafter.

The left is correct to say that it is stupid to impose spending limits during severe economic downturns. It is also stupid, however, to say that no limits should apply at a time when unemployment is below 4 percent. We aren’t exactly living in the Great Depression, and the economic laws of gravity still apply; running huge deficits will lead to crowding-out, inflation, higher interest rates, and a squeeze on the welfare state.

The GOP has set the tone by pretending that its enormous tax cuts pay for themselves. The country will ultimately pay the price for it. The Democrats may want to have their own fiscal party, but someone has to be the adults in the room, and it had better be them, because no one else is volunteering for the job.

Neoconservatives are essentially the CD faction of the Republican Party operating abroad. They believe passionately in human rights, the universality of liberal democratic principles, and the enforcement of international law. All of these, in their view, are ultimately guaranteed, and imposed where necessary, by American military force. Hence, among other interventions, the Iraq War.

“America First” is just about a perfect negation of neoconservative ideas. Trump does not give a fig about human rights. Instead of promoting democracy, he openly embraces strongmen, who, in his opinion, provide more stability and are more reliable negotiating partners than elected leaders. He thinks the rule of law, both at home and abroad, is for chumps, and only money and power matter. He believes America’s liberal democratic “allies” are just rip-off artists who should pay more for their protection. Hence, his contempt for Angela Merkel, and his open affection for Putin, Xi, and Kim.

Neocons are among Trump’s most vocal opponents. Does that translate into support for the Democrats? Not necessarily; they worry about potential Democratic nominees who are unwilling to bear any burden and pay any price to maintain liberal democratic principles abroad. To a neocon, these people are just left-wing versions of Trump.

Are they? There is plenty of middle ground for the Democrats here; I call it the “Obama consensus.” More on that in the coming weeks.

If you watch and listen carefully, there are significant differences between Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren. Warren is to the left of Clinton, of course, but the more important differences revolve around their respective backgrounds. Clinton spent most of her life in politics; as a result, she developed plenty of scar tissue and generated connections, particularly in the African-American community, that were indispensable to her in her campaigns. Warren, on the other hand, is a professor, and a wonk. She came late to politics, and it shows.

On balance, their similarities probably outweigh the differences. Both are white middle-aged women with a strong interest in policy and limited natural political gifts. Both are very bright, and both are said to be perfectly personable if you get to know them. Neither is a great speaker. Neither is very good at making strong personal connections on short notice.

Could Warren beat Trump? Under the right circumstances, yes. However, it doesn’t bode well for her that the MSM are running stories about her weaknesses as a politician that sound very much like the narrative about Clinton. She might be a good president, but a below average nominee.

If you thought 2018 was a stomach-churning roller coaster of a year, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Here are my predictions for 2019:

1. WILL TRUMP BE IMPEACHED? Barring clear evidence of a quid pro quo with the Russians and an erosion of support from his base, no.
2. WHAT WILL MUELLER SAY? There will be plenty of credible evidence supporting obstruction of justice and conspiracy counts for impeachment, but not enough to indict. Both parties will claim victory.
3. WILL THERE BE A DEBT CEILING CRISIS? Yes. Let’s hope neither party is crazy enough to force a default, but it could happen.
4. WILL THERE BE A RECESSION? More likely than not, and it will be a self-inflicted wound, as the markets absorb more Trump unpredictability than they can handle. Trump will, of course, blame everyone but himself.
5. WILL THERE BE WAR WITH NORTH KOREA? Trump seems perfectly happy to continue to pretend that he has resolved the North Korean issue, so it will only happen if Kim wants one. That is unlikely.
6. WILL THERE BE WAR WITH IRAN? Probably, although it could be postponed until 2020. As I’ve noted before, Plan A won’t work, which leaves war or surrender as Plan B. Trump will need success in a wag the dog war to boost his ratings, and MBS and Netanyahu will be in his ear every day. They will ultimately get what they want.
7. A HARD OR SOFT BREXIT? Hope for soft (or better yet, a second referendum), but bet on hard.
8. WILL PUTIN TURN THE SCREWS ON UKRAINE? Why wouldn’t he? Europe is divided and effectively leaderless, and Trump certainly isn’t going to stop him.
9. WILL TRUMP ABANDON THE TRADE WAR WITH CHINA? This is a tough one. On the one hand, the war with China is the one thing that Trump actually believes in; on the other, he can’t get re-elected if he keeps damaging his base. It could go either way.
10. WILL THE WALL BE BUILT? Sure, and Mexico is going to pay for it, too. LOL.