Jonathan Chait reminds us in today’s New York Magazine that Trump didn’t invent hostage taking as a legislative tactic; the GOP used the threat of shutdowns and debt ceiling crises to force spending cuts during the slow recovery from the Great Recession. He’s right, of course.
While the wall crisis is largely about the symbolism of the wall, it is also about the legitimacy of hostage taking; the Democrats know Trump will do it again if they concede any kind of a “win” over the wall. The question for today is, would he try it over the debt ceiling? Would he really risk the credit of the United States for something stupid that would please his base? And if he did, would the GOP congressional leadership step in to save the interests of the donor class?
The answer to the first and second questions is almost certainly yes; for Trump, anyone and anything can be a hostage if it serves his purpose. Nothing is sacred to him except his own self-image. As to the third question, McConnell would have to choose either to buck his president or his donors. Since he typically takes a long view, I’m guessing that he would support the donors, but that remains to be seen.