We already know what it will take to decarbonize our utilities: cheaper and more efficient sources of renewable energy; better batteries; and a smarter grid. We also know how to get there: technology-forcing regulation and subsidies.
When you are relying on innovation, however, there are no guarantees. The real policy question on this issue, therefore, is whether nuclear power will be part of the equation.
On the plus side, nuclear plants don’t emit greenhouse gases, they create energy very efficiently, and they use technology that is already available today. On the down side, of course, are concerns about accidents, fuel storage, and terrorism.
It’s a balancing act. To me, the negatives of nukes outweigh the positives, but reasonable people can disagree on this point. If you don’t accept nukes as part of the solution, you have to be prepared to water down your decarbonization objectives to some degree. I believe that is what will happen.