Mind the Gap in 2020: Green Acres and Manhattan

The urban/rural split is hardly unique to 21st century America. Jefferson made it the centerpiece of his political philosophy in the 18th century. Stuart historians talk about a religious, political, and cultural battle between the court and the country that ultimately led to the English Civil War. The Paris Commune was essentially a civil war between Paris and the surrounding rural areas. The Brexit vote generally pitted London against the rest of the country. It happens.

What sets America apart from other western countries is a federal system that effectively maximizes the clout of rural areas at the expense of urban residents. This effectively means that the GOP begins every election with an enormous structural advantage, which it then amplifies through gerrymandering.

Nothing remotely resembling the “revolution” is ever going to happen without the support of rural voters. How can the Democrats win a respectable percentage of them? By supporting free trade, and by making a big, sincere display of appreciating rural values. Will that happen? I see no sign of it, and none of the likely candidates is an obvious champion of rural values (oddly, given her fairly hardscrabble Oklahoma background, Warren has a better chance than most), but we’ll see.