Like Ohio, Iowa is basically a pink state; Obama won it in 2008, Trump prevailed by a comfortable margin in 2016, and the verdict was split in 2018. The Democrats don’t have to win it, but it can be done with the right combination of circumstances and policies.
The key to success in Iowa is likely to be the state of the trade war with China. Protectionism is a major vote loser here. In that sense, it is the opposite of Ohio.
I think the message here is that trade is going to be an enormously important variable for the Democrats in this election. A strong commitment to free trade helps in the agricultural states and with most of the blue base, but hurts in the Rust Belt. The logical choice is to thread the needle in the manner I have described in previous posts and keep everything in play.