At some point during the 2020 primaries, a debate moderator is going to ask a question about reparations. The white candidates will all express their solidarity with African-Americans, but will not support reparations. Cory Booker will say that his trust fund plan is a better, color-blind way of addressing wealth inequities resulting from race. The spotlight will then turn to Kamala Harris. Her response will, to a large extent, shape both the primaries and the general election.
It will be tempting for Harris to support reparations. It would set her apart from the other candidates and endear her to many liberal activists and African-Americans. It would help her in her quest to win the nomination. If she were to be nominated under those circumstances, however, the GOP would hammer her mercilessly on the issue during the general election, and appalled white swing voters would turn away from the Democrats. It would be pure electoral poison.
So which will she choose? I have no idea. My guess is we’ll know in about a year.