Donald Trump has been itching to shut down the government practically from the day he took office. One assumes that he sees the federal government as a whole as the enemy even if he theoretically runs it, and he thinks he will get kudos from the base for being strong and doing battle with the beast. Mitch McConnell, on the other hand, has been adamantly opposed to a shutdown. His theory, which was almost certainly correct, was that the public would blame the GOP for a shutdown, given that they controlled the presidency and both houses of Congress. Shutdowns are also, one hardly needs to say, bad governance.
McConnell has prevailed so far, but conditions will change in January, and there will be some surface plausibility for suggesting the House Democrats are at fault. Trump will undoubtedly view Nancy Pelosi as an ideal foil. The newly empowered Democrats aren’t going to give him his wall. Why not show off your swagger and please the base by shutting it down?
It’s going to happen–very possibly more than once, since Trump doubles down on everything. One can only hope that the shutdown isn’t accompanied by a debt ceiling crisis, as well. Shutdowns are a nuisance; debt defaults are a potential economic disaster.