In the 25 years leading up to World War I, the Germans built a powerful battle fleet in an effort to bully the UK into an alliance against the French and Russians. The UK responded, instead, by engaging in a naval arms race, which it won. As for the alliance, we all know how that turned out.
In a similar vein, some commentators have suggested that Trump’s obnoxious behavior towards our allies on trade issues is just an effort to whip them into shape before the main event, which will be focused exclusively on China. This assumes that Trump’s rhetoric about the evils of the Europeans, particularly on the German trade surplus, is mostly for show.
Is the theory correct, and, if so, will it work? The jury is out on the first question, but history tells us the answer to the second is no.