Month: October 2018

My wife and I went to see a very popular new British musical called “Everybody’s Talking About Jamie” the last night we were in London–the same day as the massive anti-Brexit demonstration.  The supremely PC plot revolves around a 16 year old boy who dreams of being a drag queen.  With the support of his saintly single mom and his Muslim female friend, he prevails over the ignorant white male bullies and realizes his dream.  The crowd went nuts for it.

Notwithstanding the plot, “Jamie” has terrific music, so if you ever have a chance to see it, go.

It occurred to me afterwards that what is going on here is that the UK, whose politics have historically been primarily based on class, is now experiencing its own version of the culture wars and identity politics.  Brexit is the most obvious manifestation of that.  On the one hand, you have young Londoners who firmly embrace the rights of racial and sexual minorities, who disdain Britain’s imperial past, and who value their links to the rest of the EU; on the other, the kind of elderly people hanging out in cathedrals that I described yesterday.  When you superimpose this conflict on the traditional battles over equality and the state that divide the two major parties, you get mass confusion, which is a fair way to describe British politics today.

Worst cover-up ever!  I would have done it much better!

If you go into an English cathedral, you are almost certain to observe two things:

1.  There are lots of large monuments to military personnel who died in Britain’s many overseas wars.  You would expect World War I monuments to be particularly prominent this year, and they are, but you will also find monuments pertaining to the Crimean, Indian, and Boer Wars.  The number of locals who died in these realtively minor conflicts is just staggering.  That was the cost of imperialism.
2.  You will be accosted by nice old people soliciting donations for the maintenance of the cathedral and offering to provide information about the history of the place.  There are two reasons for that.  First, the government apparently has stopped providing funds for cathedral maintenance, which is hideously expensive, so they have little choice.  Second, these people genuinely love their cathedral.  Their enthusiasm can be genuinely touching.

It occurred to me while we were away that these are the people who voted for Brexit.  They feel their roots in British history and want to celebrate them.  They don’t view their imperial past as a form of racism to be disdained.  I can appreciate their point of view.

The cathedral, in other words, is the antithesis of a new London skyscraper built in the millennial neoclassical style that would fit just as well in India or China.  They represent the two sides of the Brexit debate.

Surveys consistently show that the GOP rank-and-file do not support the entitlement cuts that are so beloved by the CLs, the donor class, and a large portion of the leadership.  The politicians have responded to this as follows:

1.  Change the subject to the culture wars and hope that tribalism will overcome economic self-interest.
2.  If that doesn’t appear to be working, just lie about your program on the campaign trail.

Donald Trump ran against entitlement cuts (Obamacare excepted) in 2016.  He has, however, filled his government with proponents of those very cuts.  What happens if the GOP wins in 2020, or even in 2018?

The answer is obvious:  Trump’s ability to lie will become an enormous asset to the GOP congressional leadership.  By the time he’s done, his fans will believe that those Medicare cuts aren’t really cuts at all–they were needed to protect us from socialism and rampaging minorities and to keep the program solvent.

Does Erdogan want the head (metaphorically speaking) of MBS?  Is he looking for a diplomatic revolution in which Saudi Arabia either changes course or at least recognizes the predominant role of the Turks?  Or is he just looking for a financial bailout?

By giving the Saudis a limited amount of time before he discloses what he calls the truth, he has opened the bazaar.  We should know the answer shortly.  Only the last option, in my opinion, is within his grasp.

A large percentage of the new buildings in London were constructed in what I call the “millennial neoclassical” style–glass and steel buildings (frequently, but not always, skyscrapers) with high ceilings, large windows, well-lighted rooms, and minimal furniture, generally with clean lines.  Notably, there are no columns, pediments, or statues associated with them; they are not, shall we say, imperial, and they would fit almost anywhere in the world.

Why this style?  It could reflect the following:

1.  A rejection of conspicuous materialism after the Great Recession;
2.  The overwhelming importance of phones and other computers over other goods in today’s world; or
3.  A conscious desire to create distance between today and the UK’s imperial past, which is viewed more as racist than glorious by millennials.

#3 in particular comes with a political agenda.  More on that in subsequent posts.

Pat Robertson:  It’s important to maintain good relations with the Saudi government, even though they’re Muslims and killers, because arms sales are good for America.

Me:  What would Jesus do?  Sell fighter jets to MBS?  Somehow, I don’t think so.

Donald Trump, as we know, frequently tells blatant lies and gets away with it.  The Saudi government has obviously learned a thing or two from him; its latest explanation of the Khashoggi murder is absurd.  Will it work?

Maybe, due to Trump’s unwise determination to confront Iran and his corresponding lack of options for allies, but there are two differences between Trump’s lies and MBS’.  First, Trump’s lies are usually intended to cement his relationship with his base.  MBS doesn’t have a base; his political fortunes are tied solely to King Salman.  Second, the US is the most powerful nation on the planet, both economically and militarily.  Saudi Arabia matters, but not that much.

Here’s the dilemma (perhaps I should call it a trilemma) for the government:

1.  If the entire UK remains in a customs union with the EU indefinitely, there is a very good argument that the purpose of the Brexit vote is being frustrated.
2.  If a hard border is created between Ireland and Northern Ireland, it will damage the economies of both and threaten the political settlement in Northern Ireland.
3.  If a border of sorts is created between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, it is a powerful argument for Irish unification, which is obviously unacceptable to a majority of people in Northern Ireland, at least for now.

The government’s response has been to play for time and pray for a technological miracle that will make a plausibly hard border economically acceptable.  Will it work?  Probably not, at least not soon enough for the current PM.

The best solution, of course, is the second referendum.

Here is where the factions stand on the Khashoggi murder:

CDs:  It is a horrible violation of international law and fundamental principles of decency.  America must take actions against the Saudi government if it wants to retain any moral claims to leadership in the world.

PBPs:  As long as the oil keeps flowing and the arms sales continue, we’re still good.

CLs:  Events outside our borders are not our problem, mon.

Reactionaries:  We’re not crazy about Islamic killers, but we really hate Iran, so if Trump says MBS is ok, we’re ok with that.

Bottom line:  Don’t expect any meaningful action here.

Assume, for purposes of discussion, that the Saudi government ordered Khashoggi’s murder.  Niall Ferguson asks, so what?  America has to do business with thugs on a daily basis.  Killing a single journalist pales in comparison with the bombing in Yemen.  Anyway, the important thing is to keep a unified front against Iran.

As usual, he’s wrong.  Here’s why it matters:

1.  Killing people on foreign soil who have legitimate claims to be protected by other governments is legally and morally unacceptable.  How is this any different than Putin and his poisoners?
2. This latest episode is just more evidence that MBS has no idea what he is doing.  Do we want to back a loser?
3. I don’t really accept the argument that it is somehow in our national interest to give unqualified support to the Saudis in what amounts to an Islamic civil war.  To the extent that the argument carries any weight, it has to be based on the Saudi government’s willingness to reform and be a responsible international citizen.  This episode damages any moral claims they have against the Iranians.

David Davis had an op-ed in the Sunday Times in which he insisted that the EU will fold if the government holds firm.  It’s exactly what the proponents of Leave said during the referendum campaign.  Is he right?

No.  The EU has to keep a unified position, which means it will reflect the lowest common denominator.  That means a hard line.  In addition, the UK needs good relations with the EU more than the EU needs the UK.  If the government takes the Davis line, it will wind up with a catastrophic no deal, not a better deal.

Imagine that you are one of many Conservative MPs who voted to remain in the EU.  You are hoping against hope that the government can deliver a soft Brexit settlement that will do as little damage as possible.  At this point, however, it does not appear that the government has the votes to get that done.  Then what?

Your alternatives appear to be an election that could well put Corbyn in power, or a disastrous no deal Brexit engineered by Davis or Boris Johnson.  Which choice is worse?  It’s hard to say.

Well, if you ask me, you should be working across party lines for a second referendum.

These are quotes from a real article in The Times.  I am not making this up.

BBC staff have been told to use non-binary pronouns when addressing gender-fluid or transgender employees to ensure that the corporation does not develop a heteronormative culture.

The broadcaster will also review its systems and practices to ensure that they are inclusive of non-binary genders, and will train managers on how to support transgender staff, especially when they are in transition.

In addition, heterosexual BBC staff will be asked to wear badges identifying themselves as straight allies to help their LGBT colleagues.

Honestly, there has to be lots of middle ground between this and being a Trump supporter.

Kavanaugh explained in his WSJ op-ed that his intemperate behavior was motivated by his desire to protect his family.  Like many of his comments over the last week, that was a lie, unless it was vital for some reason for him to sustain the myth within his family that he was a hard-working choir boy during his raucous high school days.  No, he did it for himself, and Judge, and P.J., and Tobin, and Squi, and every other preppie who leveraged his family’s money and connections into financial success and convinced himself he was a virtuous, self-made man who had earned his privileges.  Now, that’s a cause worth lying for.

His profoundly selfish, overtly partisan behavior has damaged the image of the Supreme Court as a fundamentally fair, apolitical body.  Trump won’t care about that, since he enjoys displays of raw power, but the Chief Justice will.  One imagines he will sit Kavanaugh down early in his tenure and suggest that he cool his jets and do his best to undo the damage done over the last few weeks for his own benefit, for the Court, and for the entire nation.

Will he take the advice?  Will he write principled, moderate opinions and try to come across as a healer?  Will he make Susan Collins proud?  Or will he devote the rest of his life to getting even with his left-wing tormentors?  Will he push the Court to dismantle the “administrative state,” go on Fox News every chance he gets, and throw rhetorical bombs to own the libs at every opportunity?  Will he make Collins look like a chump?

Everything I’ve seen in the confirmation process points to (b), but it’s totally up to him.

Note to my readers:  I will be taking a badly-needed break from Trump and Kavanaugh in the land of Brexit during the next two weeks.  Posting during that period will be irregular at best.