If you thought the last two years were bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet!
Some elements of the future can be predicted fairly safely. For example, it is virtually certain that the remaining “adults” in the administration will leave after the midterms, and that the beast will be unleashed to an even greater degree. On the other hand, Trump’s relations with Congress cannot be predicted until the results of the election are known. A third group of issues, however, is independent of the outcome of the election, and TBD:
1. How will Trump react if the market crashes? This is likely to occur at some point in the next two years. My guess is that he will be unable and unwilling to reassure the markets; instead, he will spend his time and energy attacking the Fed and trying to spread the blame, which will only make things much worse.
2. Is there an off ramp for the trade wars? As I’ve noted before, it appears that he is looking for a fundamental change in the way the Chinese do business in lieu of just accepting some measure of managed trade for a cheap “win.” Will that continue, or will he change course? That remains to be seen.
3. Where are we going with North Korea? It’s pretty clear that Trump doesn’t want war in Korea. What we don’t know is how long we can keep up the posture of bogus negotiations as a solution to the problem. In the meantime, the rest of the world has lost interest in enforcing sanctions. Whether we have another crisis is probably up to Kim, who is certainly capable of creating one at a moment’s notice.
4. When is the war with Iran? Trump apparently believes that sanctions will bring Iran to its knees. When they fail, he will be left with the options of going to war or backing down. With Netanyahu and MBS whispering in his ear in favor of a brief and brutal war for regime change, which do you think he will choose?
5. What happens to Mueller and our constitutional rights? Once a new Attorney General is in place, all hell is going to break loose, particularly when the Iran war begins.