Here’s the dilemma (perhaps I should call it a trilemma) for the government:
- If the entire UK remains in a customs union with the EU indefinitely, there is a very good argument that the purpose of the Brexit vote is being frustrated.
- If a hard border is created between Ireland and Northern Ireland, it will damage the economies of both and threaten the political settlement in Northern Ireland.
- If a border of sorts is created between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, it is a powerful argument for Irish unification, which is obviously unacceptable to a majority of people in Northern Ireland, at least for now.
The government’s response has been to play for time and pray for a technological miracle that will make a plausibly hard border economically acceptable. Will it work? Probably not, at least not soon enough for the current PM.
The best solution, of course, is the second referendum.